Introduction
Indonesia is the largest archipelago in the world which consists of five major islands and more than 17,500 islands (6,000 inhabited).

The five main islands are:
(1) Sumatra, which is about 473,606 sq. km in size
(2) Java is the most fertile and densely populated islands,132,107 sq. km
(3) Kalimantan, which comprises two thirds of the islands of Borneo and measures 539,460 sq. km
(4) Sulawesi, 189,216 sq. km
(5) Irian Jaya, 421,981 sq. km

which is part of the world’s second largest island, New Guinea. Indonesia’s other islands are smaller in size. The archipelago is on a crossroad between two oceans, the Pacific and the Indian, and bridges two continents, Asia and Australia. The total population is approximately 214 millions but more than half of Indonesia's people live on the island of Java. The Java Island has large population and industries, which constitutes the major area of energy demand. The problem is not that Indonesia lacks resources, but that they are far from Java. Most energy resources are located outside the island of Java, much of the coal, oil, natural gas and other assets are hundreds of miles away in the northern part of the island of Sumatra or Kalimantan. Nuclear power is needed to sustain economic development in the world's fourth most populous country.

The increase of population, especially in the rural areas, those are not yet have an adequate access to electric power, is an indication of an expected high-growth rate of electricity demand. Indonesia, like other South East Asian developing countries, currently has low living standards and low energy consumption. Energy consumption per capita per year is relatively low even as compared to other ASEAN countries. The reality, therefore, is that substantial increases in energy use in general, and in electricity use in particular, will be needed in order to reach national development goals. Careful planning for wise development and use of national resources, and cost-effective participation in international energy markets, is crucial for assuring the adequacy, resilience and independence of the country’s energy system. Rapid increases in domestic energy demand make it more difficult to depend on Indonesia’s existing increasingly limited resources. Consideration must therefore be given to developing and deploying all available energy technologies including fossil fuels, renewable and nuclear energy.

Towards Indonesia’s plan to introduce nuclear power, according to Article 13, Act No. 10 year 1997, the development of any commercial nuclear reactor in the form of a nuclear power plant, shall be established by the Government after consulting with the People’s House of Representatives of the Republic of Indonesia. Since the decision to build nuclear power plant has to be consulted to the Parliament, it is indeed necessary to have always excellent communication with members of Parliament, to be understood by them and has to be supported by the society at large. In the past, efforts to launch nuclear power programmes based mainly on economic justification have failed for various reasons; ones of the most important reasons were due to the lack of public support because of repeated accident. The first attempt in 1980 was triggered by the Three-Mile Island-2 accident, the second one in 1986 due to the Chernobyl-4 accident and the crash of oil price, while the third one in 1997 because of the Asian economic crisis. Indonesia is pushing ahead with nuclear power at a time when the commercial use of nuclear power is in decline after 40 years of expansion. It is being rejected because of escalating costs, faulty technology and continuing public concern about accidents and radioactive waste disposal.

Current State and Future Projection of Energy Demand

The comprehensive assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation study in Indonesia consists of two phases. The energy demand and supply analysis using the MAED and MARKAL models is Phase I of the study and was carried out in 2001. The assessment of environmental impacts and externalities of electricity generation using the SimPacts model have been done in Phase II of the study in 2002. This study is performed by taking into account the national and regional data to obtain a consistent comprehensive picture of the Indonesian energy economy, such as: the population projection (shown in Figure 1), and the future economic growth estimation (shown in Figure 2).



The economic growth in 2005 is estimated 5.6% and the average economic growth estimation from 20006 to 2025 is between 5.5% to 6%. Based on the projected future gross domestic product per capita in Indonesia (GDP/capita), the total Indonesian energy demand is estimated for four regions: Java-Bali-Madura, Sumatra, Kalimantan and Other Islands (Figure 3). Electricity demand is estimated in terms of useful energy (Figure 4).



The most prominent change facing the Indonesian energy sector over the study horizon is a shift from being a net energy exporter to becoming a net importer. Once a major oil exporter, Indonesia begins to import substantial amounts of crude oil during the first decade of the 21st century. Domestic demand for oil products greatly exceeds projected indigenous oil production capacity. Expanding coal production and fluctuating gas exports cannot prevent this change, which appears to be unaffected by the underlying oil market price scenario. Natural gas and renewable take the lead in electricity generation while oil products remain an important source for decentralized electricity generation. In the absence of environmental constraints, nuclear power does not enter the cost-optimal solution. The imposition of small emission reduction requirements, however, immediately tilts the balance in favor of nuclear.


The results of this study provide a realistic projection of energy demand in Indonesia taking into account the economic crisis of 1998, projected population and economic growth and changes in lifestyles and technology (Figure 5). This projection is consistent with other projections and reflects current Government policies. Gas and coal are already in use in Indonesia for centralized electricity generation. Nuclear power is the only alternative at present for replacing the fossil base load generation. Its introduction into the mix is assessed as described below, under the least-cost criterion and based on assumptions about available and - for the supply of Java - accessible resources, about fossil and nuclear power plant costs, and about the development of fuel prices.

A nuclear power programme would comprise a number of nuclear power plants and the supporting infrastructure, to be constructed over a long time period. It should be emphasized that nuclear power would be a less meaningful option if only a single plant is considered. If additional electricity generation capacity is needed on an urgent basis, other options, such as gas, oil or coal fired power plants, can be constructed more quickly than nuclear power plants. In the long term, however, nuclear power can be more economical and beneficial of the environment, as well as to the development of the country. An economic assessment of the nuclear power option will be based on certain factors, such as the availability of other low cost energy resources; the level of technical infrastructure of the country (including the size and reliability of the electricity distribution grid, industrial capabilities and availability of qualified manpower); and assurances of the supply of equipment, fuel and others items essential for nuclear power programme. Other key economic factors to be considered include the high initial capital investment costs, low fuel and production costs, waste disposal cost, high availability factors and minimum demands on the transportation system compared with those of electricity production using other fuels.

Source: http://www.iaea.org/inisnkm/nkm/cnkm/papers/ardisasmita.pdf

The nuclear industry has been trying hard to convince the world that a Chernobyl-type disaster could not happen again. Nuclear proponents within the Indonesian Government have repeatedly stated that the risks associated with nuclear energy would be negligible. However, the history of nuclear technology shows that accidents do occur, and most of them are due to human error. In addition, Indonesia has substantial geological hazards that make a compelling arguement against nuclear power. Earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 8.0 on the Richterscale occur frequently in the Indonesian region

Civil nuclear technology has failed worldwide. The dream of unlimited clean and cheap energy from nuclear power has remained just that. Indonesia should learn from the mistakes made by many industrialised countries and adopt a more energy efficient development process. Economically, nuclear energy does not compare favourably with its competitors, such as coal, geothermal and natural gas. Indonesia has vast amounts of non-nuclear fossil and renewable energy resources. The advantages in using renewable energy systems are the modest technical support needed, and the minimal risk posed to the population and the environment. A hightech, capital intensive nuclear industry, on the other hand, will expose millions of Indonesians to the very real danger of radioactive contamination.

Indonesia stands at the crossroads. The outcome of the nuclear debate will have far reaching consequences for the future of Indonesian society. Once the nuclear programme has been set in motion, Indonesia will be totally committed to follow the path of a dangerous and capital intensive energy generation system, mainly feeding the industrial sector. The major beneficiaries from such an ambitious scheme will be Indonesia’s industry and the elite.

The cost of nuclear energy generation will rise steadily due to the expenses of decommissioning and the long term storage of radioactive waste. Rather than coming of age, Indonesians will find themselves increasingly dependent, financially and technologically, on the industrialised world. It is possible that, by following the dream of becoming a high-tech nation - by relying on nuclear power - in a few decades, Indonesians might find themselves in a position where they are forced to rely on an expensive and possibly outdated technology; one that has been superseded by more efficient and cost effective alternatives that do not pose a threat to the environment for generations to come.

The possible regional ramifications associated with Indonesia’s nuclear programme are threefold. First, there is a distinct possibility of radioactive contamination of Indonesia’s neighbours in the event of an accident. The nuclear disaster at Chernobyl has shown the world that radioactive contamination does not respect national borders. Second, the mining and transportation of uranium, and most importantly, the storing of the radioactive waste, will be of concern to the region. Finally, the potential for Indonesia to become a nuclear power in military terms will have a dramatic effect on the region. Indonesia’s neighbours, such as Australia would be forced to rethink their strategic position. This could lead to an escalation of nuclear proliferation. Any nation with civil nuclear energy has the potential to become a military nuclear power in a very short time.

Many Indonesians are aware of the environmental risks associated with nuclear energy, as well as the enormous investment nuclear installations require. Although the debate is widespread, the decision whether to choose nuclear or not remains firmly in the hands of Indonesia’s elite. The New Order regime has shown in the past that it favours capital intensive institutional growth with a centralised power system, which is suited to nuclear energy, rather than a minimum energy economy, reliant on soft or light technologies that are sustainable and would guarantee a degree of independence and freedom of choice to the Indonesian people. The nuclear debate has to be placed in the wider context of socio-political relations within Indonesia. Besides the more obvious environmental and economic impacts nuclear energy will have on Indonesia and its people, the nuclear issue raises questions of equity. Critics of the scheme are not only concerned with safety aspects and the economics of nuclear technology, but also seek to participate in the decision making processes that will impact on their lives as well as on future generations.

Source: http://wwwarc.murdoch.edu.au/wp/wp65.pdf

In its 1993 report on Indonesia’s energy and environment the World Bank found that: ...for Indonesia, as with most other developing countries in Asia, the role of nuclear in its total energy supply needs to be reviewed with care, due to: (i) the availability of less expensive alternative, such as gas and coal; (ii) the shortage of investment capital; and (iii) concerns with the feasibility of evacuation plans in densely populated areas, seismic, volcanic and soil conditions, and the availability of cooling water in many areas of Java, where the potential market is located
(World Bank 1993: 38).



ENERGY ALTERNATIVES
Indonesia’s non-nuclear energy resources

The feasibility study by NEWJEC Inc., of the first nuclear power plant site at the Mt Muria Peninsula area, includes an evaluation of Indonesia’s other energy resources. Non-nuclear energy resources in Indonesia such as coal, oil, natural gas, hydro, geothermal and peat are substantial. The figures used in this section for energy resources other than peat are taken from the 1993 revised version of the Feasibility Study of the First Nuclear Power Plants at Muria Peninsula Region produced by NEWJEC.

There are vast reserves of coal in Indonesia, which is in direct competition with nuclear power. The proven reserves are approximately 4.8 billion tons and with probable reserves totalling 18.8 billion tons. In addition, geological potential indicates that a further 10.7 billion tons of coal resource is available. At a production rate of 10.6 million tons per year,55 the coal reserves would last for another 350 years. The major reserves are located on Sumatra and Kalimantan, with some smaller ones on Java, Sulawesi and Irian Jaya. However, as NEWJEC points out, only 35% is classified as sub bituminous and bituminous as well as anthracite; the remaining 65% is lignite, which has a lower calorific value and a higher moisture content (Task No.2: 6). When all the royalty and corporation taxes have been added on, the average production cost of Indonesian coal is estimated to be approximately US $ 30-60 per ton (Task No.2: 7), which still makes coal more economical than nuclear energy.

How will Indonesia being located in the Pacific Ring of Fire affects the construction of the nuclear plant

By Joan

Javans fired up over reactor next to volcano
Indonesia is forging ahead with plans to build its first nuclear power plant in the shadow of a dormant volcano, despite mounting opposition from environmental groups who fear a catastrophe in a country beset by earthquakes and natural disasters.
The favoured site on the north coast of Java is overlooked by the brooding presence of 5,250ft (1,600-metre) Mount Muria. Critics are concerned that the slightest tremor could trigger a fresh eruption and spell disaster for any nuclear reactor in its path. The consequences of a radioactive leak, through earthquake or eruption, could prove disastrous for Java - home to 100 million Indonesians.
"A nuclear plant on that site could become a genocide for the people of Java," said Chalid Muhammad, director of Walhi, the Indonesian Forum for the Environment. "It's a highly risky proposition: 83% of Indonesia is very dangerous - prone to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods and landslides."
But the Jakarta government and the National Nuclear Energy Agency (Batan) brushed aside the concerns, citing the growing population that will double electricity demand by 2025.
Companies in Japan, Russia and France are vying for the contract to build four proposed 1,500 megawatt reactors on a site near the village of Ujung Lemahabang 280 miles east of Jakarta. Construction of the first is set to start in two years and it will be commissioned by 2016.
Indonesia already has the International Atomic Energy Authority's blessing. Its head, Mohamed ElBaradei, visited Jakarta in December and said the predominantly Muslim nation should face no obstacle developing its nuclear programme as it had met its nuclear non-proliferation treaty obligations.
Studies highlighted by Indonesia's nuclear agency also show the site is safe geologically despite the country's precarious location on the unstable Pacific "ring of fire" volcano and earthquake belt. The agency maintains the reactor will be earthquake proof. "We're completely happy about safety," said Taswando Taryo, of Batan. "Seismic activity is one of our key concerns. But the reactor will withstand earthquakes. We also assessed Mount Muria. It's a small volcano and couldn't affect the reactor."
To ensure the plan does not suffer the same fate as an earlier project that foundered in the teeth of vitriolic opposition, Batan has embarked on a campaign to win over wavering farmers who will live in the shadow of the plant. Handouts of irradiated rice seed - matched by gifts of cows and job-creating construction projects - are crude efforts to convince doubters that nuclear is not dangerous since the crops have been treated with radiation.
"It's like comparing apples and oranges, the two things are totally different," said Nur Hidayati, a Greenpeace worker. "They're saying this is 'nuclear rice'. That's their communication strategy."
A new geological study has unearthed minor faults in the area that suggest the government is playing with fire, she said.
"Nuclear power plants are dangerous technology at the best of times, but when put in an unstable geological location like Indonesia the risk is even higher," she said. "They say Muria volcano died a long time ago, but no one can predict the future."
Campaigners maintain alternatives were not seriously examined. They are at a loss to explain the government's renewed enthusiasm after it backed away from the nuclear power option in 1997.
Some Indonesians even doubt their own ability to build and run a nuclear power plant safely.
"In every accident in Indonesia - planes, trains and ships - the government always blames human error," said Walhi's Mr Chalid. "If that's so, can we build a nuclear reactor in Java and operate it safely with such weakness in our human resources?"
In the coastal town of Jepara, near the planned reactor site on a government rubber plantation, apprehensive inhabitants fear they are being put in jeopardy and caught up in geopolitics.
"If there's an accident or an explosion then the whole community will be the victim," said Ahmad Cholil, a religious and community leader. "This is just a showcase project to give the government a bargaining chip at the nuclear table. But we'll pay if it goes wrong."

Taken from: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/apr/05/indonesia.international

Indonesia approves nuclear plant
The Indonesian government has decided to build the country's first nuclear power station.
A spokesman for the Atomic and Nuclear Energy Agency, Deddy Harsono, said construction would start in 2010.

The plant will be built on the Muria peninsula in central Java, and will have four reactors, each able to produce 1,000 megawatts of electricity.

Mr Harsono told the French news agency AFP that the site had been chosen for its tectonic stability.

There are regular earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in Indonesia, due to its position on the Pacific "Ring of Fire".

Ideas of building the power plant have been on the drawing board for a long time.
Indonesia currently relies on coal-generated electricity as well as hydroelectric power and imported fuel to meet its energy needs.

But the rapid growth in energy consumption has put increasing strain on the nation's resources.

Taken from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4456817.stm