Introduction
Indonesia is the largest archipelago in the world which consists of five major islands and more than 17,500 islands (6,000 inhabited).

The five main islands are:
(1) Sumatra, which is about 473,606 sq. km in size
(2) Java is the most fertile and densely populated islands,132,107 sq. km
(3) Kalimantan, which comprises two thirds of the islands of Borneo and measures 539,460 sq. km
(4) Sulawesi, 189,216 sq. km
(5) Irian Jaya, 421,981 sq. km

which is part of the world’s second largest island, New Guinea. Indonesia’s other islands are smaller in size. The archipelago is on a crossroad between two oceans, the Pacific and the Indian, and bridges two continents, Asia and Australia. The total population is approximately 214 millions but more than half of Indonesia's people live on the island of Java. The Java Island has large population and industries, which constitutes the major area of energy demand. The problem is not that Indonesia lacks resources, but that they are far from Java. Most energy resources are located outside the island of Java, much of the coal, oil, natural gas and other assets are hundreds of miles away in the northern part of the island of Sumatra or Kalimantan. Nuclear power is needed to sustain economic development in the world's fourth most populous country.

The increase of population, especially in the rural areas, those are not yet have an adequate access to electric power, is an indication of an expected high-growth rate of electricity demand. Indonesia, like other South East Asian developing countries, currently has low living standards and low energy consumption. Energy consumption per capita per year is relatively low even as compared to other ASEAN countries. The reality, therefore, is that substantial increases in energy use in general, and in electricity use in particular, will be needed in order to reach national development goals. Careful planning for wise development and use of national resources, and cost-effective participation in international energy markets, is crucial for assuring the adequacy, resilience and independence of the country’s energy system. Rapid increases in domestic energy demand make it more difficult to depend on Indonesia’s existing increasingly limited resources. Consideration must therefore be given to developing and deploying all available energy technologies including fossil fuels, renewable and nuclear energy.

Towards Indonesia’s plan to introduce nuclear power, according to Article 13, Act No. 10 year 1997, the development of any commercial nuclear reactor in the form of a nuclear power plant, shall be established by the Government after consulting with the People’s House of Representatives of the Republic of Indonesia. Since the decision to build nuclear power plant has to be consulted to the Parliament, it is indeed necessary to have always excellent communication with members of Parliament, to be understood by them and has to be supported by the society at large. In the past, efforts to launch nuclear power programmes based mainly on economic justification have failed for various reasons; ones of the most important reasons were due to the lack of public support because of repeated accident. The first attempt in 1980 was triggered by the Three-Mile Island-2 accident, the second one in 1986 due to the Chernobyl-4 accident and the crash of oil price, while the third one in 1997 because of the Asian economic crisis. Indonesia is pushing ahead with nuclear power at a time when the commercial use of nuclear power is in decline after 40 years of expansion. It is being rejected because of escalating costs, faulty technology and continuing public concern about accidents and radioactive waste disposal.

Current State and Future Projection of Energy Demand

The comprehensive assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation study in Indonesia consists of two phases. The energy demand and supply analysis using the MAED and MARKAL models is Phase I of the study and was carried out in 2001. The assessment of environmental impacts and externalities of electricity generation using the SimPacts model have been done in Phase II of the study in 2002. This study is performed by taking into account the national and regional data to obtain a consistent comprehensive picture of the Indonesian energy economy, such as: the population projection (shown in Figure 1), and the future economic growth estimation (shown in Figure 2).



The economic growth in 2005 is estimated 5.6% and the average economic growth estimation from 20006 to 2025 is between 5.5% to 6%. Based on the projected future gross domestic product per capita in Indonesia (GDP/capita), the total Indonesian energy demand is estimated for four regions: Java-Bali-Madura, Sumatra, Kalimantan and Other Islands (Figure 3). Electricity demand is estimated in terms of useful energy (Figure 4).



The most prominent change facing the Indonesian energy sector over the study horizon is a shift from being a net energy exporter to becoming a net importer. Once a major oil exporter, Indonesia begins to import substantial amounts of crude oil during the first decade of the 21st century. Domestic demand for oil products greatly exceeds projected indigenous oil production capacity. Expanding coal production and fluctuating gas exports cannot prevent this change, which appears to be unaffected by the underlying oil market price scenario. Natural gas and renewable take the lead in electricity generation while oil products remain an important source for decentralized electricity generation. In the absence of environmental constraints, nuclear power does not enter the cost-optimal solution. The imposition of small emission reduction requirements, however, immediately tilts the balance in favor of nuclear.


The results of this study provide a realistic projection of energy demand in Indonesia taking into account the economic crisis of 1998, projected population and economic growth and changes in lifestyles and technology (Figure 5). This projection is consistent with other projections and reflects current Government policies. Gas and coal are already in use in Indonesia for centralized electricity generation. Nuclear power is the only alternative at present for replacing the fossil base load generation. Its introduction into the mix is assessed as described below, under the least-cost criterion and based on assumptions about available and - for the supply of Java - accessible resources, about fossil and nuclear power plant costs, and about the development of fuel prices.

A nuclear power programme would comprise a number of nuclear power plants and the supporting infrastructure, to be constructed over a long time period. It should be emphasized that nuclear power would be a less meaningful option if only a single plant is considered. If additional electricity generation capacity is needed on an urgent basis, other options, such as gas, oil or coal fired power plants, can be constructed more quickly than nuclear power plants. In the long term, however, nuclear power can be more economical and beneficial of the environment, as well as to the development of the country. An economic assessment of the nuclear power option will be based on certain factors, such as the availability of other low cost energy resources; the level of technical infrastructure of the country (including the size and reliability of the electricity distribution grid, industrial capabilities and availability of qualified manpower); and assurances of the supply of equipment, fuel and others items essential for nuclear power programme. Other key economic factors to be considered include the high initial capital investment costs, low fuel and production costs, waste disposal cost, high availability factors and minimum demands on the transportation system compared with those of electricity production using other fuels.

Source: http://www.iaea.org/inisnkm/nkm/cnkm/papers/ardisasmita.pdf